In 1990, the UN General Assembly decided to start work on a climate change convention and in 1994 the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into force. Their goal is to stabilise the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes.
Each year a Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC is held, where the countries that have ratified the convention meet and discuss how its goal can be implemented in practice. The next conference in the series is COP14, to be held in Poznan, Poland in early December of this year, and this will be followed by COP15, which is scheduled to take place in Copenhagen from 30 November to 11 December 2009.
The significance of Copenhagen 2009
The historic significance of the Copenhagen event is that its primary objective is to establish an ambitious agreement on reducing man-made GHG emissions for the period from 2012, a post-Kyoto Protocol agreement.
Indeed, if the world’s nations are to decide upon a new agreement to enter into force before the Kyoto Protocol expires, COP15 in Copenhagen is the final opportunity to do so. The conference will be attended by the environment ministers and officials from the 189 countries taking part, including the USA and China.
What is the Institution doing?
Over the coming year we will use our website to put forward the Institution’s thoughts on COP15, communicate our programme of activity in the run-up to this historic event, and to engage you in a dialogue regarding the warming of the planet’s atmosphere, changes in climate, and the options available to society to meet the possible challenges.
Learn more about the Institution's programme of activity.
What has the Framework achieved?
It is 14 years since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into force, with 154 nations as signatories and the intention to stabilise emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at 1990 levels by the year 2000.
The Kyoto Protocol: A global agreement on greenhouse gas emissions
The Kyoto Protocol was introduced at Conference of Parties 3 (COP3) in December 1997 to regulate the generated part of the world’s CO2 emissions (ie not including deforestation and natural emissions) and came into force on 16 February 2005.
However, despite the fact that a total of 181 countries, plus the EU as a single entity, have ratified the agreement, only 36 developed countries (plus the EU) are required to reduce GHG emissions to specified levels. This does not include a number of nations which generate significant levels of GHG emission.
Commitment to the Kyoto Protocol
Most industrialised countries, with the exception of the USA, agreed to legally binding reductions in GHG emissions that would reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% relative to 1990 levels, between the years 2008 and 2012.
National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union (EU) and some others, to 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.
As of June 2008, a total of 181 countries, plus the EU as a single entity, have ratified the agreement.
Global CO2 emissions since the Kyoto Protocol
In the 14 years since the UNFCCC entered into force, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO²) in the atmosphere as measured by NOAA ERSC has increased from a global annual mean of 358 parts per million (ppm) to 383ppm.
More significantly from 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 (the date targeted by the UNFCCC for stabilisation of emissions at 1990 levels) the annual rise has increased to an average 2.1ppm. In addition, concentrations of two other significant GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide, have increased by about 2% and 3.4% respectively over the same period. However, since 1999 methane concentrations have stabilised, but this is most likely related to several factors, including changes in emissions related to the former Soviet Union and the short lifetime of methane in the atmosphere.
In 2007, global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel use and cement production increased by 3.1%, or about 830 million metric tons of CO2, relative to 2006. The emissions from China accounted for approximately 65% of this increase, with India, Russia and the USA contributing a further 30%. The first three nations are not obliged to reduce their emissions under the Protocol and the USA, along with Kazakhstan, is one of the two signatories who have not ratified the agreement. Thus about 95% of the increase in 2007 is attributed to nations that are not required to make emissions reductions.
Who are the top CO2 producers?
The top CO2 producing countries are:
- China: 25%
- USA: 21%
- The EU-15: 12%
- India: 8%
- Russia: 6%
Together these five countries produce 71% of global CO2 emissions. The EU is the only entity in this list of top five emitters to have a reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, in 1990, at the start of this UN process, the countries that ultimately adopted reduction targets under the Protocol had a share of 30% of global GHG emissions, whereas in 2005, as a result of increased emissions from nations without targets, this share had decreased to about only 20%.
The obvious questions are:
- With such a small proportion of global emissions generated by those countries obliged to reduce them, has the Protocol been effective?
- Have those nations with reduction targets been disadvantaged by the Protocol?
- Is there any value in having a new agreement that doesn’t include the other four top emitters?Global warming
The effects of increasing greenhouse gas emissions
Our planet’s atmosphere is currently warming at a rate above that which might be expected from natural forcing, and the consensus of scientific opinion is that human activity is most likely responsible, through so-called anthropogenic forcing. The latter is generally defined as being primarily the result of two activities: human-generated emission of GHGs, more particularly CO2, and deforestation, which reduces the size of the available carbon sink.
Many scientists, largely through the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have expressed concerns that warming of the atmosphere relative to its state in the pre-industrial era will lead to changes in climate at global, continental, national, regional and local scale, and in some cases these changes might have significant environmental, economic and social impacts.
Averting global warming through greenhouse gas reduction
The IPCC fourth assessment report concluded that a reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is necessary to stabilise the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere to avoid irreversible damage to the environment. In this respect it has been recommended that the rise in global average temperature, relative to pre-industrial levels, should be kept to below 2ºC.
In order to achieve this, it is estimated by the IPCC, in its best-case scenario, that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere should be stabilised at 350-400ppm and that this can be achieved if emissions peak before 2015 and are reduced by 50-85% by 2050 compared to 2000.
Even in this case, 30% of all plant and animal species will be at increased risk of extinction, two billion people worldwide will face increased water stress, and the world will face a number of other significant challenges.
How viable are these reduction targets?
The year 2015 is only seven years away, six years after Conference of Parties 15 (COP15) in Copenhagen and three years after any post-Kyoto Protocol agreement would come into force.
Given that the global annual mean concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is currently 383ppm and there has been a 34% growth in annual global CO2 emissions over the last fourteen years, is it possible to achieve a peak in emissions before 2015 and stay below a global annual mean CO2 concentration of 400ppm? If not, what should we do about it?
Global warming
The effects of increasing greenhouse gas emissions
Our planet’s atmosphere is currently warming at a rate above that which might be expected from natural forcing, and the consensus of scientific opinion is that human activity is most likely responsible, through so-called anthropogenic forcing. The latter is generally defined as being primarily the result of two activities: human-generated emission of GHGs, more particularly CO2, and deforestation, which reduces the size of the available carbon sink.
Many scientists, largely through the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have expressed concerns that warming of the atmosphere relative to its state in the pre-industrial era will lead to changes in climate at global, continental, national, regional and local scale, and in some cases these changes might have significant environmental, economic and social impacts.
Averting global warming through greenhouse gas reduction
The IPCC fourth assessment report concluded that a reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is necessary to stabilise the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere to avoid irreversible damage to the environment. In this respect it has been recommended that the rise in global average temperature, relative to pre-industrial levels, should be kept to below 2ºC.
In order to achieve this, it is estimated by the IPCC, in its best-case scenario, that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere should be stabilised at 350-400ppm and that this can be achieved if emissions peak before 2015 and are reduced by 50-85% by 2050 compared to 2000.
Even in this case, 30% of all plant and animal species will be at increased risk of extinction, two billion people worldwide will face increased water stress, and the world will face a number of other significant challenges.
How viable are these reduction targets?
The year 2015 is only seven years away, six years after Conference of Parties 15 (COP15) in Copenhagen and three years after any post-Kyoto Protocol agreement would come into force.
Given that the global annual mean concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is currently 383ppm and there has been a 34% growth in annual global CO2 emissions over the last fourteen years, is it possible to achieve a peak in emissions before 2015 and stay below a global annual mean CO2 concentration of 400ppm? If not, what should we do about it?
Should mankind just adapt?
What is adaptation?
In recent years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and wider scientific community have realised that it will be necessary to adapt the world to the climate change that is going to occur in the relatively near future – so called ‘adaptation’.
Much scientific effort is now being invested in developing computational tools to explore possible future climate scenarios based on past, current and anticipated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In response to these scenarios, it will be necessary to consider the physical, economic and social adaptations that need to be implemented across a wide range of sectors, as well as ecological factors, to ensure the continued functioning of the systems that underpin civilised society.
Is adaptation inevitable?
In recognition of the reality of GHG emissions growth, which is occurring despite the work of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is increasing concern among opinion formers and the general public that no matter how much politicians meet in the Conference of Parties (COPs), talk and set targets, the upward trend in emissions will continue into the future.
The pace of world economic development, population growth and globalisation means that GHG emissions and deforestation continue to increase regardless of the political focus, and actually show no significant signs of slowing down. If this is to be the case then, in the absence of significant success with emissions reduction-based policies, the world may have to adapt to whatever future changes happen in the climate.
Is this an acceptable approach and if so what is required to ensure adaptation occurs in an orderly and timely manner? What adaptation is achievable in a technical context? What can be done about ecological systems and international disparities in impact, technical capability to adapt and capacity to adapt?
About our Copenhagen programme
Mechanical engineers are fundamentally involved in developing and deploying the technical solutions required for mitigation, whether it be new machines for electricity generation from renewable energy sources, or carbon capture and storage devices, or technologies that reduce emissions at source in vehicle engines etc.
Indeed, as a profession we are in a position to advise society on what is technically possible, what can be expected to be achieved from technology and what the limits are, and bring some technical rigour into the mitigation debate.
Mechanical engineers are also at the core of many of the systems that underpin contemporary society and which will need adaptation, whether in the built environment, transport infrastructure or utilities.
With our programme of work and activities during the run-up to the historic Conference of Parties 15 (COP15) in Copenhagen, the Institution will engage in the discussion, debate, make recommendations and provide advice to the delegates attending the event, and confirm our leadership position among the engineering profession.
source: www.imeche.org
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